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Advancing Earth System Models to increase understanding of Earth system change

European Commission

Expected Outcome:

Project results are expected to contribute to all of the following expected outcomes:

Advanced understanding and capability to predict the future evolution of the Earth system, at global to local spatial scales and from weather to climate timescales, including the socio-economic and environmental impacts of these changes;
Advanced understanding and capability to predict regional climate variability, including extreme events and regional water cycle, in particular, regional precipitation;
Strengthened collaboration and cross-fertilisation across available approaches to Earth system and climate modelling science, enabling a joint contribution to the next generation of Earth system models (ESMs);
Long-term science, modelling and evidence base to support European and international polices are advanced.

Scope:

ESMs are the primary tools used for assessing future changes in the climate system. They have increased in their resolution and realism over the past two decades. Despite these advances, there remain several poorly understood and simulated processes, interactions and feedbacks that limit their ability to deliver accurate predictions and projections of global and regional Earth system change, and to aid understanding and quantifying future climate variability. Specially challenging is how variability interacts with extreme events (including compound ones), in particular related to precipitation and water availability (both excess and scarcity).

Actions should address all of the following aspects:

Improving the simulation of the coupled Earth system and its sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic forcings, with a better representation of key Earth system and climate feedbacks and processes, including, among others, one or more of the following advances[1]:
- The interplay between global change, regional climate variability, and changes in climate and weather extremes;
- Terrestrial-ocean-climate interactions;
- Coupled climate-carbon-water cycle feedbacks;
- Coupled climate-ocean-ice interactions;
- Aerosol-cloud-climate forcing and feedback;
- Climate-vegetation-fire interactions;
- Climate-air quality interactions;
- Interactions between land use scenarios (in terms of changes in the land use and surface, such as those related to carbon dioxide removal, with consequences on the water and carbon cycles, albedo and aerosols) and regional climate.
Increased collaboration across different model development approaches encompassing the range of available model resolutions and model realism.
Bring together and further improve existing and new observational and reanalysis datasets, models, emulators, and analysis tools to facilitate rapid and in-depth bias identification, model calibration and validation, and evaluation and understanding of model simulations.

Actions should exploit the opportunities offered by state of art digital technologies such as machine learning, big data analytics or Artificial Intelligence (AI). They should promote the highest standards of transparency and openness, extending to aspects such as assumptions, protocols, code, and data that is managed in compliance with the FAIR principles[2]. Beneficiaries of EU funding are required to publish results data in open access repositories and/or as annexes to publications, and provide full openness of any new modules, models or tools developed from scratch or substantially improved. Projects should take into account, during their lifetime, relevant activities and initiatives for ensuring and improving the quality of scientific software and code.

All projects funded under this topic are strongly encouraged to connect, coordinate, and participate in networking, intercomparison and joint activities to exploit synergies and maximise complementarities between them. They should envisage clustering activities with any other relevant projects (in[3] and outside of Horizon Europe) for cross-projects cooperation and exchange of results. Proposals should earmark the necessary resources for these purposes. Results from relevant past and ongoing projects from previous calls of this Destination and other relevant projects on ESM should be considered and strong feedback and coordination with projects funded under the topics HORIZON-CL5-2025-06-D1-01 “Climate simulations data and knowledge for optimal support of IPCC Assessments and International Policy” and HORIZON-INFRA-2025-01-SERV-02 (area on research infrastructure services to improve the understanding and prediction of future climate changes and their impact) is expected.

International cooperation is encouraged, in particular with the Global South[4], to promote capacity and consensus building, for example, by training early career researchers.

AI Based Application Success Predictor

🧪 1. Scientific Excellence Is Paramount

For ERC grants, excellence is the sole selection criterion—evaluations focus exclusively on the quality of the research and track record .

Peer-reviewers adhere strictly to predefined criteria (e.g., Horizon ITN evaluations), and weaknesses—rather than strengths—often decide the outcome .

🌍 2. Strategic Alignment with EU Priorities

Horizon Europe emphasizes Green & Digital Transitions and resilience, with specific budget steering across biodiversity, climate, digital, and societal missions .

Proposals that clearly align with these strategic orientations and EU missions are significantly more competitive.

🤝 3. Strong, Diverse European Consortia

Horizon projects demand well-balanced consortia across Europe—geographically and disciplinarily diverse, including academia, industry, SMEs, NGOs .

Effective leadership, communication, trust, and active collaboration are key success factors.

🧴 4. Proven Research Infrastructure & Track Record

A strong publication record—especially in high-impact venues—and prior grant awards bolster chances .

ERC starting, consolidator, or advanced grants require exceptional citation records, strong proposals, and investigator track records .

📈 5. Robust Project Management

For large collaborative grants, project coordination, administration, and communication are just as crucial as scientific content .

Demonstrating realistic budget planning (100% direct costs + 25% indirect costs), administrative frameworks, and governance structures strengthens proposals .

💼 6. Fostering Mobility & Career Growth

Marie Skłodowska-Curie fellowships emphasize researcher mobility, interdisciplinary training, and developing future talent .

🧷 7. Geographical & Gender Equity

Northern and certain Eastern European institutions currently have higher success rates (≈22% vs below 18% in Southern Europe) .

ERC gender data: male and female applicants have similar success rates, though male applicants apply more frequently .

📌 Key Takeaways

Factor	Why It Matters
Excellence-first	Superior science and investigator record are non-negotiable.
Strategic fit	Alignment with EU green, digital, and mission goals is essential.
Consortium quality	Geographic, sectoral, and expertise balance enhances impact.
Management capacity	Good PM builds confidence in successful delivery.
Experience track record	Publications, previous funding, and citations build credibility.
Mobility & careers	MSCA focuses on researcher development and interdisciplinary collaboration.

🧭 Applicant Tips

Master criteria & avoid weaknesses: Make sure your proposal addresses common reviewer pitfalls—methodology, innovation, budget clarity.

Map to EU priorities: Explicitly connect your objectives to Horizon Europe’s strategic plan (2025–2027).

Build strong consortia early: Prioritize complementary expertise, geography, gender balance, and partner roles.

Show robust project management: Include a Work Package structure, governance plans, and clear communication strategies.

Leverage your track record: Highlight high-impact papers, leadership in projects, and previous awards.

Consider MSCA opportunities: Use them for mobility grants or integrating training into your project.

✅ In Summary

To maximize success with European Commission grants—especially ERC or Horizon Europe—focus relentlessly on scientific excellence, strategic EU alignment, consortium strength, and solid project planning. Combine these with a strong publication record and researcher development elements, and aim to close off any potential reviewer concerns.

Specialties

Artificial Intelligence

Eligibility Requirements

General conditions

1. Admissibility Conditions: Proposal page limit and layout

described in Annex A and Annex E of the Horizon Europe Work Programme General Annexes.

Proposal page limits and layout: described in Part B of the Application Form available in the Submission System.

2. Eligible Countries

described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes.

A number of non-EU/non-Associated Countries that are not automatically eligible for funding have made specific provisions for making funding available for their participants in Horizon Europe projects. See the information in the Horizon Europe Programme Guide.

3. Other Eligible Conditions

The following exceptions apply: subject to restrictions for the protection of European communication networks.

described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes.

4. Financial and operational capacity and exclusion

described in Annex C of the Work Programme General Annexes.

5a. Evaluation and award: Award criteria, scoring and thresholds

are described in Annex D of the Work Programme General Annexes.

5b. Evaluation and award: Submission and evaluation processes

are described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes and the Online Manual.

5c. Evaluation and award: Indicative timeline for evaluation and grant agreement

described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes.

6. Legal and financial set-up of the grants

Eligible costs will take the form of a lump sum as defined in the Decision of 7 July 2021 authorising the use of lump sum contributions under the Horizon Europe Programme – the Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (2021-2027) – and in actions under the Research and Training Programme of the European Atomic Energy Community (2021-2025). [[This decision is available on the Funding and Tenders Portal, in the reference documents section for Horizon Europe, under ‘Simplified costs decisions’ or through this link: https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/docs/2021-2027/horizon/guidance/ls-decision_he_en.pdf]].

Beneficiaries will be subject to the following additional obligations regarding open science practices: Open access to any new modules, models or tools developed from scratch or substantially improved with the use of EU funding under the action must be ensured through documentation, availability of model code and input data developed under the action.

described in Annex G of the Work Programme General Annexes.

Specific conditions

described in the specific topic of the Work Programme

Sponsor Details

Sponsor Institute/Organizations: European Commission

Sponsor Type: Corporate/Non-Profit

Address: Rue de la Loi 200, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium

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