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The attribution to climate change, and improved forecasting of extreme and slow-onset climate- and weather-related events and their impacts

European Commission

Expected Outcome:

Project results are expected to contribute to all of the following expected outcomes:

Advanced understanding of the causality between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency and intensity of climate and weather extremes (including temperature extremes, heavy precipitation and pluvial floods, river floods, droughts, storms, as well as compound events), and their risks and impacts, including cascading impacts, on human systems and ecosystems;
Improved methodologies and tools of attribution of extreme climate- and weather-related events, and their impacts, to anthropogenic climate change;
Enhancement of existing or creation of new pilot global databases of extreme events, impacts and their attribution;
Advanced knowledge of how attribution science and forecasting can be operationalised for a range of policy purposes, including informing and improving preparedness, civil protection and humanitarian planning for future extreme and slow-onset events, post-disaster reconstruction, resilience and adaptation plans.

Scope:

Anthropogenic climate change influences the intensity and likelihood of extreme weather events – the latest IPCC report warns that anthropogenic climate is already affecting weather and climate extremes across the globe and with every additional increment of global warming, changes in extremes will continue to become larger.

Attribution science tries to answer the question of what the role of anthropogenic climate change relative to other drivers (natural and non-climate anthropogenic factors), is for a given extreme climate or weather event. It is relatively nascent, and while it is fast advancing, numerous gaps remain, including on compound and cascading events, the interplay between slow and fast onset events, the appropriate statistical methods and the proper consideration of various degrees of vulnerabilities and exposure.

Some tail events, risks and associated impacts are inherently poorly represented in current simulation records. The latest advances in numerical modelling, AI and Machine Learning, counter-factual datasets using large ensembles and digital twins, for example, could increase the sample size of simulated rare – including compound and cascading - events and offer opportunities to explore the decision-making and estimated impact space (e.g., in relation to water, air pollution, ecosystem status, land use – and their combination). Propagating uncertainties along the causality chain is an important aspect to address in this context.

Actions should address all of the following aspects:

Advance attribution science through a combination of observations, models, attribution methodologies applied to the physical climate conditions (fast and slow-onset event attribution for a more accurate estimation of how the likelihood and intensity of the hazards have been altered by anthropogenic climate change) and impacts (identifying how the interplay between anthropogenic climate change and local implemented responses affects residual impacts);
Advance the understanding of the interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic climate change both in the recent past (since the instrumental data is available) and in the near- and mid- term future (2025-2060), as well as the interplay between climate and non-climate drivers of impacts, and socially differentiated vulnerability patterns;
Advance methodologies to collect diverse in-situ and remote sensing observations to develop or contribute to robust extreme event and impact databases;
In the context of attribution, focus on extreme and slow-onset events and their interactions (including cascading and compound events) and impacts (on human systems and ecosystems), locally implemented responses and their limits (response capacities), with due consideration of vulnerable regions;
Deliver enhanced methods to separate the effects of climate trends (including in extreme events) from trends in exposure and vulnerability, both in observed datasets and in model scenarios;
Investigate how different model enhancements (e.g., finer resolution, increased complexity) impact the realism and accuracy of the modelled climate and weather extremes. Strive to investigate inter-model differences and their implications for extreme event attribution and contribute to multi-model and intercomparison approaches (e.g., Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, ISIMIP), including with downscaling and bias correction of global models for better simulation of extreme events;
Building on latest advances in attribution studies, improve forecasting of extreme climate- and weather-related events and their impacts, and contribute to the evolution of climate services;
Improve the knowledge of how to operationalise the attribution science and forecasting for informing future planning including in some of the areas relevant for advancing disaster preparedness and prevention capacity building, humanitarian aid operations, and adaptation plans (e.g., early warning systems, disaster risk reduction including with nature-based solutions, emergency relief) via co-design and co-production with operational actors, including citizens and civil society globally and with due consideration of associated challenges in the Global South;
The results should serve as a basis to ensure policies and actions that follow from the attribution studies can integrate climate justice.

When dealing with models, actions should promote the highest standards of transparency and openness, as much as possible going well beyond documentation and extending to aspects such as assumptions, protocols, code, and data that is managed in compliance with the FAIR principles[1].

All projects funded under this topic are strongly encouraged to connect, coordinate, and participate in networking and joint activities together, as appropriate. Collaboration with Destination Earth is encouraged. Clustering activities with other relevant ongoing projects (in and out of Horizon Europe) should be envisaged for cross-projects cooperation and results from relevant past and ongoing projects, including XAIDA[2] and CLINT[3], should be considered.

This topic requires the effective contribution of social sciences and humanities (SSH) disciplines and the involvement of SSH experts, institutions as well as the inclusion of relevant SSH expertise, in order to produce meaningful and significant effects enhancing the societal impact of the related research activities. Citizen Science and other innovative and participatory forms of research could be appropriate for this action.

International cooperation is encouraged, in particular with the Global South[4] in the context of scientific capacity building, disaster risk reduction and strengthening of climate resilience.

AI Based Application Success Predictor

🧪 1. Scientific Excellence Is Paramount

For ERC grants, excellence is the sole selection criterion—evaluations focus exclusively on the quality of the research and track record .

Peer-reviewers adhere strictly to predefined criteria (e.g., Horizon ITN evaluations), and weaknesses—rather than strengths—often decide the outcome .

🌍 2. Strategic Alignment with EU Priorities

Horizon Europe emphasizes Green & Digital Transitions and resilience, with specific budget steering across biodiversity, climate, digital, and societal missions .

Proposals that clearly align with these strategic orientations and EU missions are significantly more competitive.

🤝 3. Strong, Diverse European Consortia

Horizon projects demand well-balanced consortia across Europe—geographically and disciplinarily diverse, including academia, industry, SMEs, NGOs .

Effective leadership, communication, trust, and active collaboration are key success factors.

🧴 4. Proven Research Infrastructure & Track Record

A strong publication record—especially in high-impact venues—and prior grant awards bolster chances .

ERC starting, consolidator, or advanced grants require exceptional citation records, strong proposals, and investigator track records .

📈 5. Robust Project Management

For large collaborative grants, project coordination, administration, and communication are just as crucial as scientific content .

Demonstrating realistic budget planning (100% direct costs + 25% indirect costs), administrative frameworks, and governance structures strengthens proposals .

💼 6. Fostering Mobility & Career Growth

Marie Skłodowska-Curie fellowships emphasize researcher mobility, interdisciplinary training, and developing future talent .

🧷 7. Geographical & Gender Equity

Northern and certain Eastern European institutions currently have higher success rates (≈22% vs below 18% in Southern Europe) .

ERC gender data: male and female applicants have similar success rates, though male applicants apply more frequently .

📌 Key Takeaways

Factor	Why It Matters
Excellence-first	Superior science and investigator record are non-negotiable.
Strategic fit	Alignment with EU green, digital, and mission goals is essential.
Consortium quality	Geographic, sectoral, and expertise balance enhances impact.
Management capacity	Good PM builds confidence in successful delivery.
Experience track record	Publications, previous funding, and citations build credibility.
Mobility & careers	MSCA focuses on researcher development and interdisciplinary collaboration.

🧭 Applicant Tips

Master criteria & avoid weaknesses: Make sure your proposal addresses common reviewer pitfalls—methodology, innovation, budget clarity.

Map to EU priorities: Explicitly connect your objectives to Horizon Europe’s strategic plan (2025–2027).

Build strong consortia early: Prioritize complementary expertise, geography, gender balance, and partner roles.

Show robust project management: Include a Work Package structure, governance plans, and clear communication strategies.

Leverage your track record: Highlight high-impact papers, leadership in projects, and previous awards.

Consider MSCA opportunities: Use them for mobility grants or integrating training into your project.

✅ In Summary

To maximize success with European Commission grants—especially ERC or Horizon Europe—focus relentlessly on scientific excellence, strategic EU alignment, consortium strength, and solid project planning. Combine these with a strong publication record and researcher development elements, and aim to close off any potential reviewer concerns.

Specialties

Environmental Health

Eligibility Requirements

General conditions

1. Admissibility Conditions: Proposal page limit and layout

described in Annex A and Annex E of the Horizon Europe Work Programme General Annexes.

Proposal page limits and layout: described in Part B of the Application Form available in the Submission System.

2. Eligible Countries

described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes.

A number of non-EU/non-Associated Countries that are not automatically eligible for funding have made specific provisions for making funding available for their participants in Horizon Europe projects. See the information in the Horizon Europe Programme Guide.

3. Other Eligible Conditions

described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes.

4. Financial and operational capacity and exclusion

described in Annex C of the Work Programme General Annexes.

5a. Evaluation and award: Award criteria, scoring and thresholds

are described in Annex D of the Work Programme General Annexes.

5b. Evaluation and award: Submission and evaluation processes

are described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes and the Online Manual.

5c. Evaluation and award: Indicative timeline for evaluation and grant agreement

described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes.

6. Legal and financial set-up of the grants

Eligible costs will take the form of a lump sum as defined in the Decision of 7 July 2021 authorising the use of lump sum contributions under the Horizon Europe Programme – the Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (2021-2027) – and in actions under the Research and Training Programme of the European Atomic Energy Community (2021-2025). [[This decision is available on the Funding and Tenders Portal, in the reference documents section for Horizon Europe, under ‘Simplified costs decisions’ or through this link: https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/docs/2021-2027/horizon/guidance/ls-decision_he_en.pdf]].

Beneficiaries will be subject to the following additional obligations regarding open science practices: Open access to any new modules, models or tools developed from scratch or substantially improved with the use of EU funding under the action must be ensured through documentation, availability of model code and input data developed under the action.

described in Annex G of the Work Programme General Annexes.

Specific conditions

described in the specific topic of the Work Programme

Sponsor Details

Sponsor Institute/Organizations: European Commission

Sponsor Type: Corporate/Non-Profit

Address: Rue de la Loi 200, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium

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